Is this bet worth taking? Calculates expected value, risk/reward ratio, and verdict. Connects to Thiel's framework — most ideas have symmetric or negative payoffs; the asymmetric ones are rare and worth concentrated bets.
Inputs
Probability of being right%
The hardest input. Be honest. Most overestimate.
Upside if right% gain
What you make if the thesis works (vs current price/state).
Downside if wrong% loss
Maximum loss tolerance (where would you exit?).
Time horizonyears
How long until thesis confirms or breaks.
Quick presets
Verdict
Asymmetric — Thiel-style.
Reward / risk: 5.00:1
5.00:1 reward/risk with 40% probability. Few bets clear this bar. When they do, concentrate.
The Math
Expected value (per dollar bet)+28.00¢
Expected value annualized+13.14%
Reward/risk ratio5.00:1
Break-even win probability16.7%
You need to be right at least this often
Asymmetry scoreStrongly asymmetric
Honest Read
This is the kind of bet Thiel sizes for impact. Win rate doesn't need to be high — the 5:1+ reward/risk does the work. Verify your inputs aren't optimistic. If still asymmetric, position-size accordingly via Position Sizer tool.