Strategic Intelligence

Tools · 10 of 13 live
Calculators + Frame Generators

Tools turn the dossiers into something you RUN, not just read.

Each tool ties to one or more dossiers and applies the framework on demand. Position Sizer is built on Buffett+Ackman discipline. Asymmetry Calculator forces Thiel-style probability thinking. Pre-Mortem Generator is Munger inversion as a one-click tool. Encoding the framework, not generic math.

Decision Sizing — pure math + verdicts
Kelly Criterion + Conviction Tier

Position Sizer

Calculate the right position size based on edge probability, win/loss ratio, conviction tier, and account size. Half-Kelly + conviction-tier cap applied.

Buffett (circle of competence) · Ackman (concentrated conviction)Run →
Is this bet worth taking?

Asymmetry Calculator

Calculate expected value + risk/reward ratio. Verdict: "Asymmetric (3:1 reward/risk)" or "Symmetric — pass." Forces probability-weighted thinking.

Thiel (rare contrarian truths)Run →
The most powerful force

Compound Forecaster

Project compounding over decades. Side-by-side: your trading vs index. Forces the long-term math Munger calls "the most powerful force in the universe."

Buffett · MungerRun →
Taleb 80/20 split

Barbell Allocator

Antifragile capital allocation: 80% extreme-safe + 20% extreme-risk. Avoids the middle-risk trap.

Taleb (antifragile)Run →
Honest psychological capacity

Drawdown Tolerance Test

Position too big? At what drawdown would you panic-sell? Reverse-engineers the right size from your actual psychological tolerance.

Marks (cycles) · Resilience pillarRun →
Strategic Framing — frame generators
Munger inversion as a tool

Pre-Mortem Generator

Type a planned decision → 7 failure modes ranked by probability with mitigation per mode. Forces failure-thinking before acting.

Munger (inversion)Run →
Name what you give up

Cost-of-Action Calculator

Surface the AND — what you give up (time, optionality, identity, relationships, capital) for any decision. One-way door warning if applicable.

Honest Read framework (every dossier)Run →
Apply any thinker to your situation

What Would [Thinker] Do

Pick Buffett, Thiel, Ackman, Munger, Marks, Naval, Taleb, or Bezos. Describe situation. Get their lens applied with concrete next step.

All 8 thinker dossiersRun →
Howard Marks framework

Cycle-Position Indicator

Where are we in the cycle? Input 5 indicators (credit spreads, sentiment, IPO volume, etc.). Verdict: late expansion / contraction / bottom. Defensive vs aggressive recommendation.

Marks (second-level thinking)Run →
Map any shock to your life

Cascade Mapper

Input a shock or event + your personal exposure → customized 10-layer cascade map. How does this hit YOUR career, business, portfolio, family?

All 8 shock playbooksRun →
Self-Assessment — personal calibration
Are your high-conviction bets actually high probability?
Soon

Conviction Calibrator

After 6+ months of Decision Log entries, see: "Your high-conviction wins 67%; probes 42%. Overconfident on real bets by 15pp."

Decision Log (prerequisite)
Which pillars do you keep hitting?
Soon

Personal Pillar Heatmap

Visual map of which of the 8 Pillars your decisions keep touching. P6 Resilience appearing 47% = your weak spot.

Decision Log
Filter dossiers to YOUR horizon
Soon

Time-Horizon Filter

Available time + decision type → which dossiers apply. Filters out wrong-horizon noise (Buffett 30y vs Thiel 7y vs Ackman 3y).

All dossiers
— 10 live · 3 queued · each tied to a dossier —